David Gstrein

I am a Postdoctoral Researcher at ZEW Mannheim in the Research Unit Corporate Taxation and Public Finance, which I joined in September 2026. I received my PhD in economics from LMU Munich in 2026 and worked as a junior economist at the ifo Institute from 2021 to 2026.

My research is in public economics and studies the effects of taxation on workers and firms. In my work, I combine quasi-experimental designs with economic modelling to quantify incidence, welfare, and efficiency.

Please feel free to reach out: david.gstrein@zew.de

ZEW Website - Twitter - Google Scholar - LinkedIn

David Gstrein

Working Papers

Capitalists, Workers and Landlords: A Comprehensive Analysis of Corporate Tax Incidence
Co-authors: Florian Neumeier, Andreas Peichl, Pascal Zamorski

Rent control, expropriation risk and political uncertainty
Co-authors: Mathias Dolls, Clemens Fuest, Carla Krolage, Florian Neumeier

Taxing Wealth or Profits? Evidence from German Wealth Taxation
Using administrative plant-level data I study how the taxation of business wealth affects firms and workers. Before a reform in 1998, the German local business tax was levied on two bases: profits and book-value business wealth. Exploiting municipality‑level variation in pre‑reform capital‑tax rates, a one‑standard‑deviation (0.1 pp) cut raised equipment investment by 5 % and average wages by 0.4 %. Semi‑elasticities converted into user‑cost terms are large for investment (~ 4.5) and in line with prior wage incidence estimates. District‑level evidence reveals that the reform encouraged entry, predominantly of low‑productivity firms. The investment effects were also concentrated among lower-profitability firms. The findings underscore that taxing wealth versus income shapes both factor demand and the productivity distribution. Using sufficient statistics and a spatial-equilibrium model, I find that in the German setting profit taxation is the more efficient instrument for raising revenue under empirically plausible parameter values.

Work in Progress

Cashing Out and Moving On: The Taxation of Business Sales
(solo-authored)

Taxing Me, Taxing You: Efficiency Costs of Income Taxation with Coworker Spillovers
Co-authors: Lea Fricke, Ulrich Glogowsky, Dominik Sachs

Optimal Local Business Taxation: Theory and Evidence from Germany
Co-author: Kai Boie

Peer-Reviewed Publications

The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions - toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach
Co-authors: Florian Dorn, Berit Lange, Martin Braml, Clemens Fuest, Gérard Krause, John L.Z. Nyirenda, Patrizio Vanella, Joachim Winter
Economics and Human Biology, 2023, Volume 49, 101198

Other Publications (non-refereed)

Economic Causes for the Rise of Populist and Nationalist Movements
Co-authors: Florian Dorn, Florian Neumeier
EconPol Forum, 2024, 25(9), 09-13.

Fiskalische Auswirkungen der Säule 1 (teilweise Neuverteilung von Besteuerungsrechten) und der Säule 2 (globale effektive Mindestbesteuerung)
Co-authors: Elena Herold, Florian Neumeier
Kurzexpertise im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen im Rahmen des Forschungsauftrags fe 3/19

Die Mittelschicht in Deutschland: Zugehörigkeit, Entwicklung und Steuerlast
Co-authors: Florian Dorn, Florian Neumeier, Andreas Peichl
ifo Schnelldienst, 2023, 76, Nr. 08, 29-36
Media Coverage: Tagesschau, ZDF, Spiegel, Die Zeit, Wirtschaftswoche, Tagesspiegel

Income and Tax Burden of the Middle Class in Europe
Co-authors: Mathias Dolls, Florian Dorn, Max Lay
EconPol Forum, 2023, 24 (4), 67-72

Gerechtigkeit für die Mitte? Die Verteilung der Steuer- und Abgabenlast in Deutschland und im EU-Vergleich
Co-authors: Mathias Dolls, Florian Dorn, Max Lay, Florian Neumeier, Andreas Peichl
Study funded by Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung e.V., 2023

Die Betroffenheit der deutschen Wirtschaft durch den US-Inflation Reduction Act
Co-authors: Andreas Baur, Clemens Fuest, Philipp Heil, Niklas Potrafke, Aurel Rochell
Kurzexpertise im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen im Rahmen des Forschungsauftrags fe 3/19
Media Coverage: SZ

Entwicklung eines Bottom-up Ansatzes zur Messung der Unternehmensteuerlücke (Corporate Income Tax Gap) in Deutschland mit Fokus auf die benötigten Datengrundlagen
Co-authors: Elena Herold, Florian Neumeier
Kurzexpertise im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen im Rahmen des Forschungsauftrags fe 3/19

How Do Taxation and Regulation Affect the Real Estate Market?
Co-authors: Mathias Dolls, Carla Krolage, Florian Neumeier
EconPol Forum, 2022, 23 (5), 65-69

The European added value of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. An assessment of the Austrian, Belgian and German plans
Co-authors: Francesco Corti, Daniel Gros, Alessandro Liscai, Tomas Ruiz, Tamas Kiss-Galfalvi, Elena Herold, Mathias Dolls, Clemens Fuest
Study requested by the ECON committee of the European Parliament
Older EconPol Policy Brief Version

Entwicklungen am Berliner Immobilienmarkt ein Jahr nach dem Mietendeckel
Co-authors: Daniela Arlia, Mathias Dolls, Clemens Fuest, Carla Krolage, Florian Neumeier
ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, 75, Nr. 04, 50-55
Media Coverage: Spiegel, FAZ, Tagesspiegel, Business Insider, Wirtschaftswoche

Corona-Infektionen und die Dunkelziffer: Vergleichen wir Äpfel mit Birnen?
Co-authors: Florian Dorn, Clemens Fuest, Andreas Peichl, Marc Stöckli
ifo Schnelldienst digital, 2020, 1, Nr. 12, 01-05
Media Coverage: ZDF Heute Journal

Currently on Hold

Economc Deprivation and Radical Voting: Evidence From Germany
Co-authors: Florian Dorn, Clemens Fuest, Lea Immel, Florian Neumeier